China’s coal consumption is expected to fall by only one-third by 2040, according to a report by a European consultancy published on Tuesday, posing a significant challenge to the global climate targets aimed at phasing out the world’s coal use.
The Norwegian risk assessment firm DNV report suggests that China’s coal consumption—the world’s biggest—will slightly increase in the next two years before declining by one-third by 2040.
The report comes despite the International Energy Agency’s emphasis on eliminating coal power capacity by 2040 to keep average global temperature rises within the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The findings underscore China’s outlook on fossil fuels and highlight the continued use of coal despite a substantial increase in renewable energy generation, which is expected to make up 88% of the power generation mix in 2050.
Although natural gas consumption is anticipated to remain part of the energy mix, declining only 2% from 2022 levels by 2050, the report said that China is nearing its carbon neutrality target by 2060 if it accelerates the decarbonisation of some sectors, particularly manufacturing.
The report said China’s total energy demand, which has been growing at around 3% per year, is expected to decelerate through the rest of this decade.
China, the world’s biggest crude importer, driven by electrification, is set to phase out oil more rapidly than coal. The report forecasted a 94% decrease in oil demand in China’s road sector and sees gasoline demand halving by 2045, with 84% still being met by imports.