A discussion document on the country’s second emissions reduction plan (2026-30) said New Zealand could miss its 2035 emissions reduction target despite being on track to meet climate change goals for 2022 to 2030.
The Ministry for the Environment document also added that the country’s carbon dioxide emissions in the five years leading up to 2035 are projected to be 7% higher than the target unless significant changes are implemented.
The document said the forecast’s failure to meet the target is partly due to the centre-right government’s removal of several of its centre-left predecessor’s climate policies and fewer trees being planted commercially.
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Another factor cited was the decision by the private owners of New Zealand’s aluminium smelter to keep it operating, which has an outsized impact given the country has little heavy industry.
In the plan’s foreword, Simon Watts, minister for climate change, said he remained confident that New Zealand could achieve Net-Zero emissions by 2050 with impactful actions.
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“Climate change is an economic issue, and the future success of our country will rely on our ability to transition to a low-emissions economy sustainably,” he said.
The new plan from 2026 to 2030 includes expanding the electric vehicle charging network, exploring carbon capture and storage, increasing renewable energy production, enhancing public transport, improving waste management, and revitalizing the emissions trading scheme.