Carbon dioxide emissions are set to experience one of the largest increases in history this year, bringing the planet closer to the brink of catastrophic climate change.
The expected increase goes beyond what’s needed to meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This surge is attributed to human-induced pollution and the impact of the El Niño weather pattern, which diminishes the capacity of natural carbon sinks to absorb CO2, as predicted by the UK’s Met Office.
“Even when we compensate for the temporary effects of El Niño, we find that human-induced emissions would still cause the CO2 rise in 2024 to be on the absolute limits of compliance with the 1.5C pathways,” said Richard Betts, author of the Met Office’s forecast.
According to the Met Office, the expected annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa in Hawaii (with records dating back to 1958) is projected to be 2.84 parts per million higher in 2024 compared to 2023.
This scenario would mark the fourth-largest increase in the Keeling Curve, a measure of greenhouse gas accumulation in the Earth’s atmosphere, in the last 65 years.
Yet, due to the level of uncertainty, it might also represent the largest increase ever, according to the Met Office.
Even if we exclude the influence of El Niño, there would still be an increase that poses a threat to climate objectives, they noted.