India Q4 GDP Data Due Today: Can Growth Breach 7%?

India’s Q4 FY25 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be released today at 4 PM, with economists closely watching for signs of economic acceleration. The fourth-quarter figures are expected to reflect a stronger performance on the back of robust agricultural output and a rebound in services.

In the previous quarter (Q3 FY25), the economy registered a growth of 6.2%, rebounding from a seven-quarter low of 5.6% in Q2. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected 6.6% GDP growth for Q4. The latest data will also influence the June 6 RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, particularly regarding interest rates.

Mixed Projections from Analysts and Institutions

Forecasts vary across research firms. ICRA estimates GDP growth for Q4 at 6.9%, citing stable domestic consumption and public investment, though exports face uncertainty due to rising tariffs. For FY25, ICRA expects full-year growth at 6.3%, easing to 6.2% in FY26.

Nomura, meanwhile, sees Q4 growth at 6.2%, and projects a rise to 6.7% in Q1 FY26, driven by stronger industrial output. State Bank of India (SBI) has pegged growth between 6.4%–6.5%, highlighting the resilience of the Indian economy amid global headwinds. SBI also notes that favorable monsoon conditions could further boost demand and consumer sentiment.

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India Surpasses Japan as Fourth-Largest Economy

The upcoming data release follows a significant milestone: India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam confirmed the development during the recent Governing Council meeting, stating that India has now crossed the $4 trillion mark.

As anticipation builds for today’s data, analysts and policymakers await clearer insights into India’s economic momentum heading into FY26.