In a recent resource report, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) emphasised the need for Norway’s oil and gas companies to increase investments in exploration and production.
The report highlighted that the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) still holds substantial oil and gas reserves, sufficient to sustain production, exports, and economic benefits for many years.
To address the anticipated decline in output, the NOD urges companies to ramp up their investments.
Norway currently extracts around four million barrels of oil equivalent daily.
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However, with many of its significant offshore fields nearing their peak production and no new projects slated for the 2030s, the country’s output is expected to peak by 2025, according to projections from the NOD. This timeline matches earlier forecasts.
Norway’s future oil and gas production depends on leveraging new technologies and exploring underdeveloped regions like the Barents Sea.
Oil and gas are vital to Norway’s economy, contributing over 20% of its GDP and 44% of its exports. The sector’s importance has grown as Europe relies more on Norwegian energy following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
However, predicting future production is challenging due to uncertainties about resources, exploration, and technology. The NOD has outlined three scenarios for production through 2050.
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The base case predicts a drop from 243 million cubic meters of oil equivalent in 2025 to about 83 million by 2050.
The low scenario anticipates a sharp decline, potentially leading to near cessation by 2050.
The high scenario suggests stable or increased production until 2025, followed by a plateau and gradual decline to around 120 million cubic meters by 2050.
These scenarios could significantly impact Norway’s net cash flow, with a potential variance of Nkr15 trillion ($1.4 trillion) between the high and low projections.
Earlier this year, Norway issued 62 exploration licenses to 24 oil companies in the APA 23 round to boost exploration efforts.