The international oil and gas sector, alongside the Middle East’s national oil companies, is gearing up to greenlight an impressive array of projects this year, signaling a substantial investment surge totaling $125 billion. Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis projects up to 30 projects to receive final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2024, collectively holding an estimated 14 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of resources.
This anticipated surge follows a year of delays and postponements, with the consultancy predicting a higher number of projects to secure FIDs compared to the 22 sanctioned developments in the previous year. Ross McGavin, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, attributes this uptick to the backlog of projects delayed from 2023.
The upcoming projects are expected to prioritize advantaged deepwater resources, with both national oil companies (NOCs) and major international players heavily involved. WoodMac highlights the economic viability and relatively low emission intensity of deepwater projects, making them particularly attractive for investment.
In terms of environmental impact, the ‘FID class of 2024’ is projected to demonstrate significantly lower emissions intensity compared to the global upstream average. With an average emissions intensity of 13.6 kg of CO2e per boe, these projects are set to contribute to decarbonization efforts within the industry.
Economically, project viability is improving, with a higher share of liquids compared to natural gas expected in the sanctioned projects. WoodMac notes a weighted average internal rate of return (IRR) of 23% for the class of 2024, indicating improved profitability compared to previous years.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) leads the expansion plans in the Middle East, with significant projects in its offshore portfolio. In Europe, Turkish national oil company TPAO is poised to approve a major phase of its Sakarya gas project in the Black Sea.
Among the key players, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil stand out, with TotalEnergies set to lead two of the top five largest projects by capital expenditure. ExxonMobil is expected to sanction its sixth floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) project in Guyana’s Stabroek block, further solidifying its presence in the region.
WoodMac anticipates a significant portion of this year’s sanctioned projects to be deepwater resource developments, underscoring the industry’s continued focus on tapping into high-potential offshore reserves. With deepwater discoveries requiring substantial investments, the projected surge in FIDs reflects optimism and confidence in the future of the global oil and gas sector.