As the world grapples with the intensifying climate crisis, COP29, the 29th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is set to be a critical moment in global climate action. Taking place from November 11 to 22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan, this summit is expected to focus heavily on addressing the financing needs of vulnerable countries and advancing critical climate solutions. Given the urgency of the climate emergency, COP29 will be a defining event for how nations confront the mounting impacts of climate change.
What are COP Summits?
The COP (Conference of the Parties) is the decision-making body for nations that have signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a treaty established in 1992. Since then, COP meetings have been held almost annually, providing a platform for international negotiations on climate action.
The primary goal of the convention is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.
The most recent COP, COP28, took place in Dubai. It was the largest-attended climate COP in history. A total of 97,000 delegates attended, including 150 heads of state. One key outcome was the Global Stock Take (GST). This mid-term review assessed progress toward the Paris Agreement goals.
The conference emphasized the urgent need for renewed efforts on renewable energy. It also highlighted the importance of a just transition and climate finance for vulnerable nations.
Why does COP29 Matter?
COP29 offers a pivotal opportunity for the international community to enhance commitments to climate action. With vulnerable nations bearing the brunt of climate-related disasters, this summit will focus on securing long-term financial support for adaptation, mitigation, and disaster relief. At the same time, key issues such as the fossil fuel transition, carbon markets, and climate finance are expected to be the centre of discussions, with negotiators seeking practical solutions to ensure the world remains on track to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
Key Issues on the COP29 Agenda
1. Climate Finance: Defining the Future of Global Support
A central theme of COP29 is climate finance. Wealthy nations have long pledged to contribute $100 billion annually to help developing countries cope with climate change. However, the target has been missed multiple times, and the current pledge expires in 2024. COP29 will seek to define the next New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance.
This will be critical for vulnerable nations, particularly those facing extreme climate impacts. While trillions of dollars are needed annually for mitigation and adaptation, negotiators will aim for a more modest goal, possibly in the hundreds of billions, focusing on ways to mobilise private sector investment alongside public finance.
2. Fossil Fuel Transition: Moving Away from Coal, Oil, and Gas
The global transition away from fossil fuels remains a key focus for COP29. While there were historic agreements at COP28 to advance renewable energy, global demand for coal, oil, and gas continues to rise, with new exploration projects underway in countries like the United States, Azerbaijan, and Guyana.
COP29 will likely push for stronger commitments to halt new coal plant permits and focus on expanding renewable energy sources like solar and wind. However, it’s unlikely that a concrete timeline for phasing out fossil fuels will be established, given the political and economic complexities involved. Instead, discussions will center around promoting energy efficiency and scaling up clean energy solutions.
3. Carbon Markets: Operationalizing Article 6
One of the most contentious issues in international climate policy is the future of carbon markets, which allow countries and businesses to offset their emissions by investing in green projects. While carbon markets have shown promise in channelling finance from heavy emitters to clean energy projects, their effectiveness has been limited due to a lack of transparency and rigour. This has led to concerns about greenwashing, where carbon credits are used to claim environmental gains without actual emissions reductions.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, designed to govern international carbon markets, remains unresolved. While rules were agreed upon at COP26, COP29 will focus on finalizing the necessary operational guidance. A fully operationalised Article 6 could create better-quality carbon markets through bilateral agreements and a centralized marketplace. To achieve this, negotiators must agree on critical aspects like project eligibility, review processes, and confidentiality of certain information.
Two successive COPs have struggled to operationalize Article 6 fully, but with the rising backlash against ineffective carbon credits and the increasing scrutiny of corporate climate pledges, COP29 could be the turning point for establishing a well-functioning carbon market in alignment with the UNFCCC framework.
4. Adaptation: Strengthening Support for the Most Vulnerable
While mitigation (reducing emissions) remains a priority, adaptation to climate change impacts is equally urgent. Developing nations, especially small island states and low-lying regions, are bearing the brunt of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves. At COP28, countries agreed to a framework for National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), but clear goals and funding mechanisms remain insufficient.
COP29 will strengthen adaptation efforts by setting quantifiable targets for adaptation actions and ensuring sufficient financial resources are mobilized to help vulnerable nations. This will likely involve greater engagement from the private sector, though mechanisms for funding remain underdeveloped.
5. Loss and Damage Fund: Securing Financial Support for Climate Disasters
The Loss and Damage Fund, established at COP27, aims to assist the most vulnerable countries in recovering from climate-induced disasters. However, it remains underfunded, with only a small fraction of the necessary resources mobilized so far. At COP29, developing nations will push for increased financial contributions from wealthier countries to ensure the fund’s success. Negotiations will also focus on how to efficiently allocate and manage funds. The goal is to ensure that support reaches the regions most affected by climate change.
The Challenges
While the key issues are clear, COP29 will face several significant challenges:
- Political Divides: Tensions between developed and developing countries, and between major emitters like the US and China, could complicate negotiations, particularly on climate finance and fossil fuel commitments.
- Private Sector Engagement: Mobilizing the necessary private capital for climate action is a significant challenge. Without clear incentives and safeguards, investors may remain reluctant to contribute to large-scale climate projects.
- Fossil Fuel Dependence: Many countries remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels, and a sudden transition away from coal, oil, and gas could threaten economic stability, particularly in developing nations.
- Debt and Climate Adaptation: Developing countries are grappling with high debt burdens, which complicates efforts to invest in climate adaptation. Debt-for-climate swaps could be a potential solution, but practical implementation remains a challenge.
COP29 is a critical platform for shaping global climate policy. Its decisions will influence how the world mobilizes climate finance. The summit will also address how to phase out fossil fuels and support vulnerable nations.
Key discussions will focus on climate finance, carbon markets, and adaptation. COP29 will play a major role in shaping future climate action.
The summit provides an opportunity to operationalize Article 6 and create a more effective carbon market system. It will also drive investments needed for a just transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy. COP29 could be a turning point for the future of our planet.
