According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand is expected to reach its highest point by 2029 and then start decreasing the following year.
This decrease will be accompanied by increased oil supply from the United States and other non-OPEC countries, leading to a significant surplus in oil production during this decade.
The IEA, which provides advice to developed nations, has revised its previous prediction made in October, moving up the timeline for peak oil demand from 2030 to 2029.
This forecast differs from that of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which anticipates a continued rise in demand beyond 2029, partly due to a slower transition to cleaner energy sources and has not specified a peak point for oil demand.
“This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
The IEA forecasts that the growth in oil demand will level off at around 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029.
After this point, it is expected to slightly decrease in 2030 due to factors such as the increasing adoption of electric cars, improvements in energy efficiency, and a shift in power generation away from oil.
Additionally, the IEA predicts that supply capacity will reach nearly 114 million bpd by 2030, which is approximately 8 million bpd higher than the projected demand.
The majority of this increase in capacity, about three-quarters of it, is anticipated to come from non-OPEC+ producers, with the United States being a significant contributor.
Oil demand will grow primarily in emerging economies in Asia, especially in India’s road transportation sector and China’s demand for jet fuel and petrochemicals.