Experts predict 2024 could surpass 2023 as hottest year
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Experts are forecasting that 2024 might surpass 2023 as the hottest year in recorded history, attributing this prediction to the exacerbating effects of climate change and the influence of the El Niño phenomenon.
Climate change, driven largely by the increased emission of greenhouse gasses from burning fossil fuels, has resulted in a global temperature rise.
Last year, the average temperature was about 1.4C higher than the pre-industrial era, and early estimates for this year indicate a range between 1.3C to 1.6C higher.
Adding to these climate change effects is El Niño, a phase within the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, characterized by warmer waters in the tropical Pacific.
This warming of sea surface temperatures leads to corresponding increases in the air temperature above the ocean, impacting global weather patterns and circulation.
Comparing El Niño to a pot of water on a stove, scientists explain that during La Niña, analogous to pouring cold water into the pot, there’s a minimal change in temperature.
However, during El Niño, the heating accelerates, likened to when the pot heats up rapidly after ceasing the cold water flow.
The prolonged duration of El Niño often results in the second year being warmer than the first, contributing to a string of record hot years witnessed over recent decades due to the combined influence of climate change and El Niño.
Last year, 2023, witnessed a continuous trend of above-average temperatures, with the latter part of the year setting numerous records, notably the warmest months and the hottest day observed.
Anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean’s temperatures were also observed, not typically associated with El Niño.
These unprecedented temperature fluctuations in 2023 emphasize the significance of studying 2024’s climate patterns. The impact of El Niño typically influences specific weather patterns in different regions, increasing the likelihood of specific weather events.
The combined impact of climate change and El Niño poses challenges, intensifying extreme weather conditions.
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