A study on Japan’s forests has predicted that afforestation and proper forest management can increase CO2 removal and contribute to the national and regional natural capital. The findings suggest that annual CO2 removal by forests could offset 15.3% of emissions and boost natural capital by 6.8% in Japan.
Another important finding of the study was that the total CO2 removal in the existing forests will peak at around 2030 and then decrease. This happens because forests of different ages have different abilities to absorb carbon. Plantation has a growth sequence of: slowâvigorousâslowâstop.
This means that older trees (over 50 years) are not as effective in absorbing and removing CO2 as younger trees. Thus, afforestation using fast-growing trees can counteract the decline in absorption from older forests in the future. The authors add that after 2030, it is also important to manage the existing forests through activities like selective cutting, thinning, and regeneration to maintain their high carbon absorption levels.
âWe need a change in regulations. For example, the local government needs to frame new or revised rules for afforestation. Industries also need to think, check, and invest accordingly. As our study finds potential much larger than expected, this deregulation needs changes,â said Shunsuke Managi, from the Urban Institute and School of Engineering, Kyushu University, Japan in an email to SEN. He is the corresponding author of the study published in Scientific Reports.
Carbon trading market
Japan has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with the Japanese government issuing the âJapan Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction/Removal Certification Schemeâ also known as the J-credit scheme.
Under this scheme, the amount of greenhouse gases (primarily CO2) reduced by implementing renewable energy or energy-saving tools or taken out through forest absorption are certified as “credits” by the government. These credits can be voluntarily exchanged creating a domestic emission trading market in Japan.
The authors note that this national carbon trading market could create new wealth for rural communities and also help balance the unequal urbanârural development in Japan. They add that though forest sinks have substantial market potential, only a small portion is currently accessible in the carbon emission trading market.
Data from the J-credit market indicates that only 0.27 total-CO2 from forest sinks were verified as credits, and just 20% of these credits were sold. The researchers point out that a potential reason for this could be the lack of transparent information about credit creators and forest owners.
In 2022, Japan established the Natural Capital Credit Consortium to bring together companies, municipalities, and academic researchers to revitalize Japanâs carbon credit market. Shunsuke Managi explains that though NCCC exists, it needs an expansion. He adds that there is also a need for more voluntary carbon markets in Japan.
The study notes that the market potential for removing CO2 from forests could be affected by factors like changes in carbon prices, climate variations, natural disturbances, and the behaviors of social networks and local residents. Therefore, more studies considering these factors are needed to get a comprehensive understanding of how forests contribute to climate change mitigation and how it impacts rural communities dependent on forests.
