In Europe, the notable increase in clean-energy production is reducing the need for carbon permits, and the sluggish industrial recovery is contributing to keeping emissions at lower levels.
The recent drop in carbon prices is tied to several factors, such as above-average renewable energy production and a prolonged industrial slowdown.
Carbon futures, which are benchmarks, hit their lowest point since March 2022 on Monday, marking a roughly 22% decrease in 2024.
These contracts are nearly 40% lower than the record set in February last year.
“The level of fossil power generation has been lower than expected especially because we had quite a good renewables year,” said Marcus Ferdinand, chief of analytics at Oslo-based Veyt. That’s led utilities to sell carbon permits they didn’t end up needing in 2023, he added.
A temporary decrease in carbon prices could ease pressure on European politicians facing criticism for stringent climate policies.
This could also provide companies with a chance to decarbonize or acquire permits at a lower cost before anticipated price hikes in the coming years.
The significant drop in early 2024 is partly due to technical reasons. Carbon prices surged late last year as investors closed short positions in the lower liquidity of late December.
However, in January, prices sharply declined, continuing a steady decrease from the peak in February of the previous year, as explained by James Rosser from CFP Energy.