Azerbaijan, the host of this year’s UN climate talks, is planning to boost its fossil fuel production by a third over the next decade, as revealed in an analysis exclusively shared with The Guardian.
Environmentalists criticize the announcement of an increased production forecast, which is also viewed as a cautious estimate.
The projection indicates that the host of COP29 aims to increase its annual gas production by approximately 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) within the crucial next 10 years, during which global leaders are urged to curtail fossil fuel production to combat global heating.
With ownership of one of the world’s largest gas fields, Shah Deniz in the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan is anticipated to extract 411 bcm of gas over the next decade, based on data obtained by the campaign group Global Witness from analysts at Rystad Energy.
This extraction would result in the emission of 781 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, surpassing the annual carbon emissions of the UK by more than two times.
The data is derived from an examination of Azerbaijan’s current gas production, inclusive of approved reserves for development and those assessed by oil and gas companies but awaiting clearance.
These findings indicate a potential increase in the country’s annual gas production, from an estimated 37 billion cubic meters (bcm) this year to 49 bcm annually by 2033.
The conservative assessment excludes gas reserves that are presumed to exist but haven’t been verified through drilling, and it doesn’t incorporate Azerbaijan’s projected production of gas condensate, a liquid hydrocarbon form.
Notably, the analysis does not consider potential gas reserves awaiting confirmation, which could still be developed within the next decade.
Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, expressed that the country is “confidently moving toward the goal” of doubling its gas exports to Europe by 2027, with ongoing gas exports to Turkey and Georgia.
Last week, the government of Aliyev named a former executive from the state oil and gas company as the president of the Cop29 climate talks, slated for November in Baku.
Mukhtar Babayev assumed the role of Azerbaijan’s ecology and natural resources minister in 2018, following a 26-year tenure at the oil and gas firm Socar.
Detractors of this appointment have highlighted similarities with the selection of Sultan Al Jaber to lead last year’s Cop28 climate summit in Dubai, where he continued as the chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
