According to calculations by Reuters and analysts, Norway is on course to have more battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on its roads than petrol cars by the end of this year or early 2025, marking a historic milestone for any nation.
This transition has been propelled by significant incentives, partly made possible by Norway’s substantial oil and gas wealth. However, analysts predict it will still take years for BEVs to outnumber diesel vehicles in the country.
With a population of 5.5 million, Norway aims to become the first country to cease the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2025. At the beginning of this year, nine out of ten new vehicles sold in Norway were BEVs.
If other countries emulate Norway’s approach, global oil demand could peak earlier than anticipated. The International Energy Agency forecasts this peak to occur before 2030, with cars and vans contributing to over 25% of oil demand.
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Nevertheless, Norway’s shift has incurred significant costs, as the country has waived taxes on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) while investing in expanding public BEV charging infrastructure.
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“If that (trend) is continued for the next 12 months and given that sales of pure-petrol cars are negligible now, this time next year there will be more BEVs on the road than pure-petrol cars, and probably before the end of this year,” Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at climate change think-thank CICERO, said.